Author: Putintseva, Maria
Prediction (or information) markets are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoff depends on unknown future events. Studying prediction markets allows to avoid many problems, which arise in some artificially designed behavioral experiments investigating collective decision making or individual’s belief formation. This work is aimed, first, to verify whether predictions made by prices of binary options traded in information markets are reliable and whether the prices contain additional information about the future comparing to the information available from the dynamics of underlying asset only. Second, inter- and intraday microstructure of the market of binary options on Dow Jones Industrial Average index is examined and described quantitatively. Third, since some ability to forecast future changes in the underlying asset is detected, a simple trading strategy based on observing the trading process in the prediction market is suggested and its profitability and applicability is evaluated.
Authors: Humphreys, Brad R.; Lee, Yang Seung; Soebbing, Brian P.
Survey data on participation in gambling typically contain many zeros. The presence of many zeros presents methodological problems for the analysis of participation in gambling markets and gambling expenditure. The most common techniques for handling zeros in gambling data have been the Tobit estimator and the Heckman selectivity estimator. Recent research indicates that hurdle models (Jones 1989, 2000) and the Cragg (1971) model, are better suited to analyze participation in gambling. We apply these models to gambling participation in Canada and find that the double-hurdle model is preferred in two of the three forms of gambling examined.
Authors: Schnytzer, Adi and Shilony, Yuval
Source: The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, Volume 1, Number 1, February 2007 , pp. 13-29(17)
The purpose of this paper is to determine empirically whether or not there is systematic price rigging in three Australian betting markets: Horse, harness and greyhound racing. We present a simple model which shows the conditions under which it is optimal for insiders to rig prices by deliberate underperformance in some races. We then show how an empirical analysis of the relationship between win and place probabilities in conjunction with observed patterns of betting behavior, may be used to establish the presence of price rigging. It is shown that there is no significant systematic price rigging in these markets.
Author: Coleman, Les
Source: The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, Volume 1, Number 1, February 2007, pp. 31-55
This paper quantifies the extent and changes in insider trading in the Melbourne racetrack betting market using a unique, long term dataset. Wagering markets share many of the characteristics of other financial markets, and are simple, with good data and a designated endpoint. Thus they are an excellent natural laboratory to study what is probably happening in qualitatively similar conventional markets. Results of this paper provide statistically significant support for hypotheses supporting the existence and increase in level of insider trading, and suggest that around two percent of betting is by insiders.
Authors: Hurley, William; McDonough, Lawrence
Source: The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, Volume 1, Number 1, February 2007 , pp. 3-12(10)
In the study of wagering markets, it is generally the case that the objective probabilities of various contestants (horses, teams, etc.) winning do not match those implied by the betting. More often than not favourites are underbet and longshots overbet, although some studies have found the reverse. We offer an explanation in the case where there is imperfect competition among book-makers and heterogeneous expectations among bettors.
Authors: Forrest, David; Alagic, Dika
Source: The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, Volume 1, Number 1, February 2007 , pp. 57-68(12)
Lotto Extra was offered as part of the United Kingdom National Lottery’s portfolio of games between 2000 and 2006. A demand model for the game is estimated and used to illustrate a discussion of why sales of the game fell steadily to the point where it was no longer viable. Emphasis is placed on the lack of minor prizes and the long sequences of weeks when no one won the jackpot (and only) prize.
Authors: Liu, Shuang; Johnson, Johnnie E.V.
Source: The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, Volume 1, Number 1, February 2007 , pp. 69-84(16)
This paper explores the extent to which decision makers in a naturalistic environment, the Hong Kong horserace betting market, anchor their probability judgments on highly visible information and make insufficient adjustments in the light of additional data. Linear regression and conditional logit models are employed to examine the extent to which certain types of information are over-represented in market odds. The results suggest that, in contrast to much of the research on anchoring conducted in laboratories, the Hong Kong betting public do not anchor their judgements on past performances of horses, jockeys or trainers.
Authors: Tziralis, Georgios; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias
Source: The Journal of Prediction Markets, Volume 1, Number 1, February 2007 , pp. 75-91(17)
This paper presents an attempt to study and monitor the evolution of research on prediction markets (PM). It provides an extended literature review and classification scheme. The former consists of 155 articles, published between 1990 and 2006. The results show that an increasing volume of PM research has been conducted in a very diverse range of areas. The articles are further classified and the results of this classification are presented, based on a scheme that consists of four main categories: description, theoretical work, applications, and law and politics. A comprehensive list of references concludes this literature review. It is the authors’ intention to provide an expedient source for anyone interested in PM research and motivate further interest.
Authors: Sung, M.; Johnson, J.E.V.
Source: The Journal of Prediction Markets, Volume 1, Number 1, February 2007 , pp. 43-59(17)
This paper compares two approaches to predicting outcomes in a speculative market, the horserace betting market. In particular, the nature of one- and two-step conditional logit procedures involving a process for exploding the choice set are outlined, their strengths and weaknesses are compared and their relative effectiveness is evaluated by predicting winning probabilities for horse races at a UK racetrack. The models incorporate variables which are widely recognised as having predictive power and which should therefore be effectively discounted in market odds. Despite this handicap, both approaches produce probability estimates which can be used to earn positive returns, but the two-step approach yields substantially higher profits.
Authors: Deschamps, Bruno; Gergaud, Olivier
Source: The Journal of Prediction Markets, Volume 1, Number 1, February 2007 , pp. 61-73(13)
We analyze the efficiency of English football betting markets between 2002 and 2006. We find evidence of a positive favourite-longshot bias for both home odds and away odds. Draw odds are instead characterized by a negative longshot bias. We also identify a draw bias in the sense that betting at draw odds yields a higher return than betting at home or away odds. Finally, we investigate betting strategies that exploit the variance of odds between bookmakers.